pp. 920·30. decembar 2024.· Issue No. 1
The Hubble tension as an epistemic crisis of the standard cosmological model: multi-probe measurement landscape and the htrpi resolutionpathway evaluation framework
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Slaven KneževićORCID 0009-0002-7691-9526
DOI: https://doi.org/1065932/CAR-2024-1-1Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 4.0 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
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The Hubble tension as an epistemic crisis of the standard cosmological model: multi-probe measurement landscape and the htrpi resolutionpathway evaluation framework
The Hubble tension — the persistent and now ≥5σ disagreement between the Hubble constant H₀ inferred from the cosmic microwave background under ΛCDM (H₀ = 67.4 ± 0.5 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹; Planck 2018, Aghanim et al., 2020) and the value from the local Cepheid–TypeIa-supernova distance ladder (H₀ = 73.04 ± 1.04 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹; SH0ES, Riess et al., 2022) — has, over 2016–2023, moved from a curiosity at the boundary of observational cosmology to one of the principal candidate signatures of physics beyond ΛCDM. Independent corroboration of the local high value by strong-lensing time delays (H0LiCOW: 73.3⁺¹·⁷₋₁·₈; Wong et al., 2020) and megamaser distances (Megamaser Cosmology Project: 73.9 ± 3.0; Pesce et al., 2020), together with the intermediate Tip-of-Red-Giant-Branch value (69.8 ± 1.9; Freedman et al., 2019; Freedman, 2021) and the GW170817 standard-siren measurement (70.0⁺¹²·⁰₋₈·₀; Abbott et al., 2017), have produced a multi-probe landscape that ΛCDM cannot simultaneously accommodate within its uncertainty budget. The Di Valentino et al. (2021) review catalogued the breadth of the theoretical response across more than a thousand proposals; the Kamionkowski–Riess (2023) synthesis identified early dark energy as the most credible single-class resolution; the Schöneberg et al. (2022) “H0 Olympics”provided the first systematic comparative ranking against multidataset constraints. The dialectical question remaining at the December 2023 boundary is which resolution pathway is best supported when CMB, BAO, supernova, structure-growth, and lensing constraints are jointly considered. The original contribution of this article is the Hubble Tension Resolution Pathway Index (HTRPI), a normalised composite metric bounded on [0,1] that integrates five evaluation dimensions — CMB compatibility, BAO compatibility, S₈/structuregrowth compatibility, predictive distinctness from ΛCDM, and theoretical motivation strength — and returns a quantitative ranking of five canonical pathway classes (pre-recombination early dark energy, late-time dark-energy modifications, sound-horizon modifications, local-physics systematic resolutions, and new dark-sector interactions). Applied to the 2016–2023 data, HTRPI returns the highest value for early dark energy (≈0.50), intermediate values for sound-horizon modifications (≈0.42) and new dark-sector interactions (≈0.38), and lower values for late-time dark-energy modifications (≈0.32) and local-physics resolutions (≈0.28).

The Hubble tension — the persistent and now ≥5σ disagreement between the Hubble constant H₀ inferred from the cosmic microwave background under ΛCDM (H₀ = 67.4 ± 0.5 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹; Planck 2018, Aghanim et al., 2020) and the value from the local Cepheid–TypeIa-supernova distance ladder (H₀ = 73.04 ± 1.04 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹; SH0ES, Riess et al., 2022) — has, over 2016–2023, moved from a curiosity at the boundary of observational cosmology to one of the principal candidate signatures of physics beyond ΛCDM. Independent corroboration of the local high value by strong-lensing time delays (H0LiCOW: 73.3⁺¹·⁷₋₁·₈; Wong et al., 2020) and megamaser distances (Megamaser Cosmology Project: 73.9 ± 3.0; Pesce et al., 2020), together with the intermediate Tip-of-Red-Giant-Branch value (69.8 ± 1.9; Freedman et al., 2019; Freedman, 2021) and the GW170817 standard-siren measurement (70.0⁺¹²·⁰₋₈·₀; Abbott et al., 2017), have produced a multi-probe landscape that ΛCDM cannot simultaneously accommodate within its uncertainty budget. The Di Valentino et al. (2021) review catalogued the breadth of the theoretical response across more than a thousand proposals; the Kamionkowski–Riess (2023) synthesis identified early dark energy as the most credible single-class resolution; the Schöneberg et al. (2022) “H0 Olympics”provided the first systematic comparative ranking against multidataset constraints. The dialectical question remaining at the December 2023 boundary is which resolution pathway is best supported when CMB, BAO, supernova, structure-growth, and lensing constraints are jointly considered. The original contribution of this article is the Hubble Tension Resolution Pathway Index (HTRPI), a normalised composite metric bounded on [0,1] that integrates five evaluation dimensions — CMB compatibility, BAO compatibility, S₈/structuregrowth compatibility, predictive distinctness from ΛCDM, and theoretical motivation strength — and returns a quantitative ranking of five canonical pathway classes (pre-recombination early dark energy, late-time dark-energy modifications, sound-horizon modifications, local-physics systematic resolutions, and new dark-sector interactions). Applied to the 2016–2023 data, HTRPI returns the highest value for early dark energy (≈0.50), intermediate values for sound-horizon modifications (≈0.42) and new dark-sector interactions (≈0.38), and lower values for late-time dark-energy modifications (≈0.32) and local-physics resolutions (≈0.28).

Objavljeno30. decembar 2024.
Stranice920
AutoriSlaven Knežević